Thinking Allowed
medical / technology / education / art / flub
How do you define a scenario? Researchers in Futures & Foresight Science suggest an approach based on published literature.
How do you define a scenario? Researchers in Futures & Foresight Science suggest an approach based on published literature. The approach suggests a series of questions (see diagram) to challenge a particular phenomenon to check if it is a scenario that can be used in future planning - or if it is something else.
"Scholars claim that futures and foresight science should overcome “confusion” regarding the definition of core concepts, for example, the scenario. Admittedly, defining scenario has been a challenge. Current practice, which results in repeated attempts to clarify said confusion with yet another new definition of scenario, has apparently not advanced the field. An alternative option is not to redefine scenario, but to, instead, create a shared definition composed of component parts of pre‐existing definitions. The result is an operant or synthesized definition based on analysis of claims indicating what “a scenario is…” and “scenarios are…” in the literature on scenario planning."
Spaniol MJ, Rowland NJ. Defining scenario. Futures & Foresight Science. 2019 Mar;1(1):e3.
Source: onlinelibrary.wiley.com
scenario definition foresight futures defining confusion science literature
RSS feed